2007 Football Schedule Analysis Part II: The Offense
This is Part II of an ongoing series of posts detailing my analysis of the 2007 UVA Football Schedule.
Before I start into the actual schedule analysis, I wanted to give my thoughts on UVA's offense going into the season. I'll break this discussion up into 5 parts: Quarterback, Running Backs, Tight Ends, Linemen and Receivers.
Quarterback
For most teams, Virginia's situation at quarterback would probably be considered the question heading into the season for the offense. Unfortunately for Virginia, its only one of many. But the ball will be in the quarterback's hands every offensive play we run, so I'll start there.
Some prognosticators have had Jameel Sewell as one of the top players on our team. He showed progression throughout the 2006 season. There's no doubt about that. But I was not convinced by his play that he is one of our best players. As one friend put it, we might have 5 players on defense that are better than anyone on offense. However, we now know something we didn't know during the season - that Sewell was hampered by a wrist injury for a significant portion of the 2006 season. If we assume that he stays healthy and we assume that his progression as continued through the off-season (which may be a big assumption given his lack of playing time during the spring), then Sewell may very well be a solid quarterback for us this season. But since the 2006 season is really all we have to go on so far, I'm not holding my breath.
Behind Sewell we have a stable of capable, though not spectacular, backups. Scott Deke was hand-picked for a reason and Marc Verica has shown flashes of promise during the off-season. But neither of them is ready to be a starting Division I quarterback. I have some confidence from some things I've heard recently that, if Sewell was injured in some minor way (a cramp, for instance), one of these two would be able to step in and handle the team for a series or two. We may not get a touchdown out of these drives, but I'm confident they'll get us some yardage, eat clock and not make mistakes.
And what discussion of Virginia quarterbacks would be complete without mention of Peter Lalich. I save him for the end, and only a brief mention, because I don't want him to play any noticeable role in 2007. I want him to be on the sidelines paying attention to every detail. I want him traveling with the team like the heir apparent should (I've heard it said that Groh took Sewell with the team in 2005 for this same purpose). But I do not want him stepping on the field.
As long as Sewell stays healthy, we'll be fine at quarterback. He may not be an all-ACC quarterback, but he'll be plenty sufficient.
Running Backs
Speaking of a stable of capable backs, our running back corps has a ton of potential. The apparent starter, Cedric Peerman, may not have had many carries in the past but I like what I've seen of him so far. Keith Payne has been labelled a superman because of some of the flashes of power he's shown in practice, but Raynard Horne may turn out to be just as impressive - only time will tell. Mikell Simpson will likely get more play at WR but may line up as a running back as well. I don't have much to say here because I don't think much needs to be said. There's a lot of potential, but not a lot of guarantees. In this case, though, I can't see us not finding one back in this bunch that can get us yardage. My money is on Peerman with Horne and Payne providing quality extra yardage. But I could see either of them taking over the starting role if need be.
Tight Ends
I was going to group the tight ends in with the receivers since that's the role I am interested in seeing them in more of this year. But then I remembered the role they played last year - undersized linemen. Because of that, I figured they deserve their own category.
When Virginia fans reflect on the 2006 season, one of the negatives they probably think about is all of the drops the tight ends had. What most casual fans will never think about is the fact that the tight ends spent such a large portion of their time acting as offensive linemen. While our tight ends are a capable blocking unit as a whole, they are not meant to go against the larger defensive linemen they were facing. If you're spending your time in the trenches, its unlikely that you'll be getting out in the open to make many receptions. And if yo'ure spending time practicing in the trenches, you might find that your receiving skills are a little rusty when you do get the opportunity.
This year, with the offensive line being more capable (I'll discuss that shortly), hopefully the tight ends will be able to work to their potential. Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar will be the starters. They're both more than capable when allowed to do their job instead of someone else's. The backups - Joe Torchia, Crutcher Reiss, etc - will have the opportunity to show what they're made of and what we as fans can look forward to in the starting role next year after both Santi and Stupar graduate.
I'm really looking forward to seeing our tight ends thrive in our offensive system. If the line holds up like I think it will, Santi could have a big receiving year (remember his Music City Bowl performance?!?).
Linemen
The offensive line has to take at least some of the blame for almost all of our offensive woes last year. They were not solely at fault, but a lot of parts of the offense depended on them and there were just too many breakdowns. Because of the youth and inexperience of the line, the tight ends had to become "pretend" linemen. Because of the breakdowns, Sewell had to scramble more than he should have and was unable to find open receivers while standing in the pocket. This lead to many poor throws by the young quarterback. If Sewell can't get the throws off in time, then we know the receivers aren't going to be making many catches either. And obviously if the line can't open up running lanes, the running backs aren't going to get past the line of scrimmage very often. All of these things happened last year, so it's no surprise that most people consider the line to be mostly to blame for our 5th to last in the country ranking of our offensive production.
There's good news here though. That entire line is back. And they're ready to go. Having a whole extra season under each of their belts is important. Having another offseason behind them is equally as important. I have a feeling that Dave Borberly is finally getting these guys into his system and we'll be seeing the fruits of that labor very soon. Tackle Eugene Monroe and guard Branden Albert are going to be huge forces on the line and I'm looking forward to seeing them dominate some opposing defenses.
Receivers
As I mentioned earlier, the receivers were very limited in their production last year by the fact that Sewell could rarely get them the ball. Even when he did, it was often a bad pass after being forced out of the pocket too quickly. So this year, with the better offensive line in place, we should see their production skyrocket, right?
Well, not so fast. The Cavaliers are suffering (for the second consecutive year) from losing their number one wide receiver to injury in the offseason. Last year it was Deyon Williams, who managed to return part of the way through the season but was never really as effective as he could have been. This year, we learn that Kevin Ogletree, Sewell's favorite target by the end of the 2006 season, has a knee injury and will likely miss the entire season. Bummer.
So the key questions for the receiving corps are 1) who steps up and fills the "top receiver" role (Maurice Covington is a common answer) and 2) which receivers can make up the best receiving package on the field at once. MoCo was a nice complement to Kevin Ogletree. Different types of receivers, and good to have both on the field at the same time. Unfortunately, Covington can't just slide into 'tree's role. We need to add another player who can complement him like he did 'Ogletree. Who will that player be?
To be honest, I'm not sure. None of the other receivers really seem to fit that role very well in my opinion. And some of them (newcomers to the WR role like Chris Gorham and Mikell Simpson), I'm not sure at all what kind of receiver they will be. I think we have a good group of receivers on this team right now, but I'm not sure how it'll play out on the field.
Summary
There are a lot of words like "if" and "potential" and "possibly" thrown about up there. I'm aware of that. This team is a bit of an enigma. Hopefully this gave you some indication why I said in Part I of this series that this team could go anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2. If all of the things above work in our favor and if the ball bounces our way a few times, this offense could do some real damage on the field. If we get some bad breaks, however, or things just don't go our way (injuries, academic attrition, etc) then the offense might be in some deep water yet again.
Next up: The Defense.