The second group of players are the guys I'm expecting to have strong productive seasons. Not stars, not the guys who would be "impact players" in NCAA Football. Still, players you are going to count on game in and game out to do what they are supposed to do, and be where they are supposed to be. This category may well be the swing players for the season. If most of these guys perform as I expect them to, or even better, we should have a successful season. If more of these struggle, or miss time with injuries, we will probably struggle.
The main requirement for this list is consistency. To be great, you have to be dominant all the time, game in and game out. To be good, you have to be dominant occasionally, and pretty solid the rest of the time. If you're dominant one play and lost the next, you're not good. If you're merely solid all the time, you're not good.
Once again, players are listed in alphabetical order, because otherwise I would end up putting my favorite players first and that's unfair.
Danny Aiken: I start this section out with an underwhelming addition, and one who may not be familiar to many fans. Aiken will likely only be used as a long snapper. However, this position is critical to the success of a team. A poor long snapper causes problems for punters and placekickers, both of whom rely tremendously on consistent timing. Oftentimes, when a kicker struggles, it is due to his snapper (or holder) being off on the timing. UVA fans saw this with Connor Hughes, who had a phenomenal year in 2003 with Matt Schaub holding, and then struggled somewhat in 2004 with John Phillips (the QB, not the TE) as the holder. Was Hughes a different kicker, or did the exchange from snap to place throw him off? I guess we'll never know, but I believe the new holder at least played a role. Hughes was again very good in 2005, with Phillips holding again. Maybe it was a one year fluke, or maybe Hughes and Phillips got more comfortable with each other.
Anyway, Aiken will probably be our long snapper all season, and by all accounts, he's well suited for the job. He acted as the long snapper for Fork Union Military Academy last season, so he's certainly got some experience. I've never seen him play, so I'm basing most of this on speculation, along with what little I've read about him. At 6'4" and 230 lbs, he seems big and strong enough to make the snap and still block onrushing defenders. He's also a former HS quarterback, who ran for 400 yards and 8 TDs as a senior, indicating that he has the speed to get downfield on punt coverage.
We have to hope Aiken can hold down the fort at long snapper, since long-time snapper Tyrus Gardner is no longer around. I do not have any idea who else would be called upon to handle the position if Aiken weren't able to do it, so I'm banking on Aiken being the man.
Antonio Appleby: After being forced into action early in 2005 due to a lack of depth at LB, Appleby forced his way into the starting lineup by the end of that season. He continued to progress last year, starting every game and finishing second on the team in plays and tackles. He and Jon Copper formed a successful, if underappreciated ILB duo.
Antonio is not a blazer in the Ahmad Brooks mold. Nor is he a hammer in the Kai Parham mold. Realistically, Appleby is a mix of the two. He's definitely faster than Parham, and while he may not be as strong as Brooks (we all know Brooks was a freak of nature), he's certainly very strong. At 6'4" and 248 pounds, he's got the size Al Groh wants from his ILBs, while also possessing above average speed. He shows the willingness back in pass coverage when necessary, although this is not his strength and frankly, he's not very good at it. He can rush the passer when needed, but again this is not really his strength. Appleby is at his best when he is attacking ballcarriers coming through the line. Appleby usually chooses good lanes, and is good at beating, or fighting off, blockers to get to the ball and make the tackle. Most of the time, when Appleby hits the ballcarrier in the hole, that run is not going anywhere.
Appleby had a strong year last year, but at times was overmatched by the position. As his reads got quicker and his instincts started to take over, he played with more confidence and looked more comfortable out there. I expect his progression to continue, and I'm expecting big things from him next year and the year after. He (and Copper) will get more rest this year, which will hopefully lead to better performances.
Nate Collins: Collins was the lone true freshman to have any impact on the field last season. This is not a knock on the rest of his class, this is simply proof that Collins is a player. He forced his way onto the field, and was productive when he was out there. 2.5 TFL and a sack, in limited snaps. Collins also drew several holding penalties (as well as a few that weren't called.)
Collins isn't really what we've grown accustomed to seeing at NT in the 3-4. He's only 281 lbs, while most NT are bigger. Last year, we saw Keenan Carter play there at well over 300 pounds. But Carter wasn't very productive, and Collins was. Collins is more in the mold of Andrew Hoffman. He uses his quickness to beat the linemen off the snap. Sometimes, he's in the backfield before the Ol has a hand on him. With the DE tandem we have out there, our DL will run a lot of stunts, designed to generate mismatches for the DLs. Collins will be the beneficiary of this, as OLs will be focused on the tandem of Chris Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald. Even when we don't stunt, Collins will oftentimes be matched up on the C, as the rest of the OL concentrates on the DEs. This works to Collins' advantage because by the time the C looks up from snapping the ball, Collins may be by him, busting up the play.
Why is Collins on this list while Allen Billyk, the starter, isn't? They are similar in style, both undersized NTs who rely on quickness and effort to get the job done. The main difference is that Billyk is 22 years old, in his 5th year with the program and Collins is 19 years old, in his 2nd year. Collins needs to gain some strength, as he will wear down quickly from too much action. Billyk is also a bit more consistent and makes better reads, especially against the run. Collins can push into the backfield so quickly, letting a quick hitter running play run right past him. I expect Collins to be starting by the end of the season, if not much sooner, as he improves against the run. It is going to be fun to watch him for the next 3 years.
Chris Cook: Cook had a solid year last year, but it would be difficult to call it a good one. Considering Marcus Hamilton was on the other side, so you'd expect teams to go at Cook a little more, he had only 1 pick and 5 passes broken up. Then again, he did have 58 tackles, including 3.5 for loss. Much of that was due to to soft Cover-2 we often employed in the defensive backfield, and the fact that teams were running on us a lot, and the DBs had to make a lot of tackles on RBs. Still, Cook certainly looked like he belonged out there, and coming off a broken leg in 2005, I was happy with his performance.
Should Cook be a safety? That is a question I've seen posted time and time again (mostly by thesabre football guru, Jhoo). He's a big guy, checking in at 6'2" and 204 lbs. He's got good speed, probably a bit faster than Hamilton, but he's not a burner by any means. Cooks strength in coverage is physical, bump-and-run type coverage, where he can jam a WR at the line and use his size to his advantage. Thus, Cook is going to struggle to man up with a quick, burner WR, due to the lack of top end speed. However, considering we'll probably see a lot of the Cover-2 again, this is less of a problem. Cook is pretty much an ideal CB in that system. He's very solid at coming up and defending the run, probably better at this stage than Hamilton ever was. He seems to make good reads on balls in the air, and with his size, he should be able to go up and get some of those balls. His interception return TD in 2005 vs Maryland was a thing of beauty. The broken leg, suffered in the BC game, was a major blow to a player who was really beginning to come into his own.
After a season spent somewhat in the shadow of Hamilton, Cook now gets to the be #1 CB. This means he'll normally be matching up against the opposing #1 WR. While there's no more Calvin Johnson in the ACC, there is still some very impressive WR talent around the conference. I wouldn't expect to see Cook left on an island all that often, just because that isn't really his strength, and it isn't really the way we play. However, there may well be situations where it is necessary, especially after the injury to Mike Brown, who was probably going to be the starter on the other side. I fully expect the proverbial "light" to come on for Cook this year. The injury is behind him, the focus will be on him and I believe he is ready for it. If it does happen, it will be a huge boost to our defense, allowing more freedom with the LBs in terms of rushing the passer. If he fails to step up, we may struggle to defend the deep ball again.
Jon Copper: A 3-4 defense needs quality ILBs if it is going to stop the opposition from running the ball. Therefore, having both of our starting ILBs on this list is a good sign. Copper led the team in tackles, even though many people thought (and continue to think) he lacks the athleticism to handle the position. 81 tackles, including 8 for loss, and 4 sacks shows he can handle the position. He was the most consistent LB, and playing in a defense that requires consistency out of our LBs, that is most impressive than the occasional highlight reel play you will see from other, more athletic LBs.
Copper is a beast. In fact, I would not be surprised if he ripped his shirt off one day, and his body was green. Point is, when he hits somebody, they go down. Copper combines this strength with a tremendous football IQ and great instincts. He makes the right read, and often beats blockers and makes the tackle not because he's quicker, but because he makes his move before the play happens. Copper also shows a good feel for the delayed blitz. At least a couple of his sacks came on a delayed blitz. The delayed blitz can be a dangerous play, if the LB leaves too early, he either gets blocked or leaves a receiver wide open, and if he leaves too late he doesn't get to the QB in time. Copper is also going to act as the QB of the defense, making reads and making sure everybody is in the right place. This will be important as the team incorporates more young players into the defense.
As I mentioned for Appleby, the rotation at LB is going to much better than it was last year. Letting the starters rest more allows them to go all out on every play, and to still have some gas left in the tank late in the game. Copper will likely see a lot of time on the field with some of the younger guys, because as such a heady player, he is capable of making up for a missed read from his teammate. He and Appleby may not rack up the tackles they had last year, but should nonetheless be more productive.
Ian-Yates Cunningham: I have to admit, IYC is one of my favorites. I'm not really sure why, but he always has been. In 2003, as a true freshman out of Plano, TX, he stepped into the starting role at LG and held his own. Those were the days when we had a dominating OL with guys like Elton Brown and D'brickashaw Ferguson. For a true freshman to come in and play at that level, with those guys around him was impressive. Unfortunately, his health problems started soon after that. He missed the entire 2004 season due to back surgery. He came back in 2005 and has played all 3 interior line positions. He played RG in every game last season, and missed only a handful of plays all season.
IYC will never overwhelm a defender with strength. He's listed at 6'3" and 290 pounds. Big certainly, but not huge. He is a better pass blocker than run blocker, another reason we'll probably see many more runs over left side than over right side. That isn't to say IYC isn't a solid run blocker, as he does get a good push off the line, and he does have the ability to get outside on a pull. But as a pass blocker, IYC simply doesn't get beat once he gets into a block.
The biggest problem through IYC's career has been his health. He just can't keep his back healthy. Last year he remained fairly healthy, and had a nice, productive year. This year, he's finally able to spend an offseason working with the same set of OL teammates, and concentrating on a single position. Here's hoping he can stay healthy and have another strong year. I would very much like to see IYC playing on Sundays.
Rashawn Jackson: If I had written a similar preview for last season, I might have put Jackson in this same spot, but as a LB. He never really stepped up at LB, and Jon Copper did. So Jackson moves fulltime to FB, a position he played a few times last year in short yardage and goalline situations. As a FB, Jackson reminds me a lot of Jason Snelling. He even wears the same number, having changed from 31 last year to 38 this year. Snelling had 31 receptions and 4 TDs as a freshman FB, and was a real weapon in the passing game for that team. Jackson can be that same type of player this year.
Like Snelling, Jackson played a lot of TB in high school. My scouting report is based on speculation because the little action he got at FB last year isn't enough to make a real judgement. I do know that he's got very good speed for a FB and probably a little more juke that your typical FB. He can certainly run over a defender, but he's also got the ability to run around him. He'll probably have to work on his lead blocking, but at 6'1" and 254 lbs, he's got the frame for it. It is mostly as a receiver out of the backfield that I expect Jackson to have the biggest impact. His speed will make it difficult for a LB to cover him in the flats, and while I can't say much for his hands, I've heard they are good enough. Once he gets his hands on the ball, he'll be dangerous in space. That LB who is covering him in the flats may well get dusted, and a DB coming up to make a tackle will show some guts taking him on.
It is somewhat disappointing that Jackson spent all last season at LB. He did a lot of work, both on and off the field, trying to learn a very difficult position. Now all that work is almost for naught. Therefore, I expect Jackson to come on slowly, and probably make some mistakes, especially as a blocker. However, he will be a weapon in a passing game sorely lacking for weapons. Depending on who our TB is at various times during the season, Jackson will probably get some short yardage carries as well, and he can be very dangerous there.
Jordy Lipsey: It sure took him long enough, didn't it. Lipsey was a 5 star recruit out of talent-rich Florida. He was listed at the time at 6'3" and 272 lbs. Now he's listed at 6'3" and 280 lbs. That right there highlights the trouble he's had putting weight on and keeping it on. The problem isn't just a lack of bulk, but a lack of strength as well. At times throughout his career, he's been manhandled by opposing DTs due to this lack of strength. Last year, finally, he was able to play at a high enough weight and strength level that he had a very productive year, and kept a hold on the starting center job. However, this may have led to some early problems due to line calls and other communication issues due to inexperience. Since I wasn't down there on the line with the guys, I can't say for sure what the problems were, but I do know that there were defenders flying unabated into the backfield while our OL stood around and watched. That sounds like a communications problems to me.
Lipsey's technique has never been in question. He gets good leverage, especially in run blocking. His pass blocking improved markedly last year, but he still suffers from a strength disadvantage and can still, at times, get bulldozed by pass rushing DTs. Lipsey rarely makes mistakes (physical mistakes anyway, some of the problems with line calls last year were probably mental mistakes on his part), but sometimes I do not feel like he plays with enough tenacity and emotion. A lot of guys who lack the strength are able to get by on will, and I have never seen that from Jordy.
The communications problem from early in the season appeared to get better, since the OL as a unit was playing better, even though the opposition was much better in most cases. Hopefully a full offseason of working with the same group of guys will lead to even more improvement in this area. Another hope is that a full offseason of conditioning for Lipsey will increase his strength and give him a little more to work with in terms of pass blocking. While Lipsey may never turn out to be the superstar OL anchor that he was predicted to be, he has turned into a good center and his perseverance has made him a personal favorite of mine (and a lot of other UVA fans). Here's hoping he has a great year, because not only would it be really nice for him, it would mean a lot to Sewell and our offense in general.
Nate Lyles: Lyles is another one of my favorites. I suspect he's a favorite of a lot of fans. First of all, everybody loves seeing big hits, and Lyles can deliver them. Second, we all respect his perseverance in coming back from a major neck injury. I'm pretty sure I've never heard Scott Stadium as quiet as it was after that hit against Georgia Tech two years ago. And I've been there when it was completely empty. I'm also not sure I've heard U-Hall as emotional as it was when he led the football team out onto the basketball court before the season-opening Liberty game.
Lyles is a hitter. That's pretty succinct, isn't it. He loves to hit people. The hit against GT that caused the injury was scary, but it was also a nice textbook hit. It was just a freak thing. He's also had big hits against Maryland a couple of years ago, and against Miami last year. Those hits don't just pump up the defense and the crowd, but they make the offensive player think twice about coming anywhere near Lyles. Lyles' strength is coming up against a receiver or runner. He'll come up and plant the guy. Sometimes he gets too caught up in the hit, and forgets to wrap up. This tends to be a problem with big hitting safeties, even accomplished NFL players like Sean Taylor and Ed Reed. As good as Nate is at coming up on a ballcarrier, that's about how much he struggles going back in pass coverage. He does not match up well in man to man coverage, whether its a slot receiver or a TE. Lyles knows his responsibilities, and rarely gets caught out of position in his deep zone drop, but he doesn't really have the range to make plays on the ball like some safeties do.
Lyles would be a great SS if paired with a ball-hawking FS (calling Brandon Woods). Lyles intimidates the offense and will make a WR think twice about running a short crossing route. While not a burner, Lyles has enough speed to make plays when he needs to. Lyles is a senior now, and its time for him to live up to the promise he came in with and play with the consistency he's lacked. He's had a full season, and offseason since the injury, so I'll go ahead and predict he does it.
John Phillips: Now that the "other" John Phillips has graduated, the TE is the only one left on team. This will remove some confusion. I remember during the Duke game his freshman year, when he scored that brilliant touchdown, carrying half the Duke defenders over the goalline, some people in the stands being confused about why a walk-on QB/holder was also playing TE. Like the other TEs, Phillips was underutilized as a receiver last year. Again, this was due to the OLs struggle to keep the QBs on their feet. Phillips 44-yard catch in the Miami game set the tone early that we would be able to move the ball against them. Sadly, I was on line at the concessions for this play, so I've only seen it on replays.
Phillips is a better blocker than either Stupar or Santi. Especially when it comes to pass blocking. Phillips is big and strong for a TE, and uses his size and strength along with a great deal of tenacity, to handle opposing DEs very well. Do not think that because Phillips is a good blocker, that he is a poor receiver. He's certainly not the downfield threat that Tom Santi is, but he's actually very similar to Jon Stupar in his ability to find the open spots in a zone, or use his size to "box out" a defender. He also has very good hands. The tenacity that he uses as a blocker is also apparent in his unwillingness to go down. Being a huge NY Giants fan, I fondly recall Mark Bavaro carrying half the 49ers defense down the field in 1987. John's Duke TD reminds me a great deal of that play.
John is really the first non-starter I've featured in either of my lists. Because I expect Santi and Stupar to see a similar number of snaps, it is difficult to portray one as the starter and one as the backup. The only reason John is a backup is because Santi and Stupar are so talented. It is almost a shame that John has had more opportunity to shine, but thats going to happen when you're a TE at TE U. Phillips will start next year, and will be tremendously productive. For the meantime, Phillips will still play a lot, in 2 TE, and even 3 TE sets. He will be used as an in-line blocker, and will be used to give the other TEs a breather. I'm expecting increased production out of Phillips, largely because somebody has to catch the ball, and there aren't a whole lot of WRs that I'm counting on. Look for Phillips to move up to the "Great" list next season.
Mikell Simpson: Simpson was mildly productive in limited opportunities last season. He scored a rushing TD late in the Duke game, long after that game was over. During the offseason, he spent some time learning the WR position, which could be very big considering the lack of WR talent we have. Simpson is a natural RB, but he certainly has the size and ability to play WR. I've heard reports that Simpson will be used as a hybrid WR/RB, much like Florida used Percy Harvin last year. Simpson isn't as quick as Harvin, but he's a bit bigger and plenty quick.
Simpson is a good runner. He's fast, he's fluid, and he can make people miss. So why move him to WR? Aside from the lack of WR depth, the reason is he's too talented to keep off the field. But so are our other RB options. Of all the RBs, Simpson has the best feel for the passing game. He also has a good pair of hands. He's apparently shown the willingness to sick his head into a defender as a blocker. But he's just not strong enough to really have an impact there. This is another reason he'll spend more time on the outside.
Harvin had 34 receptions and 41 rushing attempts last season as a true freshman, much of that coming late in the season, once he learned the offense. If we actually run more of the spread offense like everybody is talking about, Simpson could potentially match those opportunities, and that would make him a very useful, versatile weapon for Sewell.
Clint Sintim: I came pretty close to including Sintim in the Great section. And that was before he showed up to Training Camp looking Cruise Missile Sleek. The reason I didn't was because my criteria for Great required consistently dominating out on the field. Sintim has not remained consistent in his career. Sintim did have a pretty strong year last year, recording 4 sacks and 12 TFl. He also had one FF and one FR. I just didn't feel like he was really dominant game in and game out.
Sintim is similar to a LB we saw at Virginia who was dominant for most of his career in Darryl Blackstock. 'Stock is currently second on the depth chart at OLB in Arizona. Even a slimmer Sintim is bigger than 'Stock ever was, although not as fast. Like Blackstock, Clint's strength is as a pass rusher. He wants to hit the QB and he wants to hit him hard. Coming off the edge, especially with the OL having to deal with our talented DEs, Sintim is going to get into the backfield and he just needs to make plays once he gets there. While Sintim's best at getting to the QB, he's worked hard at improving his reads against the run, and has had some success there. He's not a lateral player who is going to chase down RBs across the field, but he does show the ability to maintain the edge and force a runner back inside to the rest of the defense. One thing that Blackstock really improved on in his UVA career was pass coverage. It may well be that Sintim has improved as well, but he's still terrible at it. I do not like seeing Sintim drop back, its a waste of his talent.
That's 3 linebackers that I have on this list, which is obviously a good sign for a 3-4 defense. Sintim may be the best of the three, if used properly. He is the type of LB that an OL has to account for. A pass protecting RB is not going to be able to handle Sintim one-on-one, so an OT or TE needs to get on him. This is why he shouldn't be dropping back into pass coverage. If he does that, the tackle can focus on Long/Fitzgerald and the TE can run his pattern. When we come out in a nickel set, with 4 down lineman, Sintim will usually be one of the DEs, although he may still be standing up, as opposed to in a 3 point stance. If Sintim accumulates only 4 sacks again this year, I think I will be very disappointed. I could see him going for twice that.
There are other guys I considered putting into this section. I like a lot of the redshirt freshmen, such as Rico Bell and Mike Parker. But I can't bring myself to put this here without any real knowledge of where they are on the learning curve.
I would have loved to put one of the WRs on here, like maybe MoCo, but I just haven't seen enough from him to predict a good year. We're going to need a WR to step up and prove to me that they belong on this good list in my end of season review. Maybe it'll be MoCo or Chris Dalton, or maybe it'll be one of the incoming freshman (calling Ras-I Dowling).
The other player I really wanted to put on here is Jameel Sewell. One reason I did not is that I do not want to expect too much of him. I also do not want him to expect too much of himself. I'm won't delude myself into thinking that Sewell might ever see this, but I hope the fans' expectations in general don't go to his head. The other reason I didn't put him on here is that he is coming off surgery to his wrist on his throwing arm. I just don't know what to expect. Was the wrist hurting him last year, causing him to struggle with his accuracy? Or was the accuracy something he's going to struggle with and the wrist injury will only exacerbate that?
Thats my list, and while there are, again, notable exceptions, its a pretty good list. Notice that almost the entire list is defense. While I expect our offense to be better this year than it was last year (how could it be worse?), I'm still not sold on the offense, while the defense may well be one of the best in the country.
Coming up next: The Average Guys.